John Barresi Posted February 15, 2011 Author Report Share Posted February 15, 2011 ... Sounds fair at first, but if someone has a number with 5 expired numbers just ahead (say 101, 102, 103, 104, 105 are expired, and he is 106) then he has 6 times the chance that active number 107 has. (Six numbers pay to 106, only one to 107). ... If the RNG only picked one number, then you're correct. But, I remember the characteristics of the RNG that John uses, it creates a random order for the full field of numbers. If there were only 10 numbers, the output might look like this: 4,6,8,3,5,1,9,10,2,7 The RNG doesn't pick only one number nor does it pick the first number and then list the others sequentially ... like this: 4,5,6,7,8,9,10,1,2,3. Thus, having expired numbers ahead of your number does not tilt the odds in your favor. Yes? Cheers, Tom Correct, all issued numbers (i.e. 1 to 800) appear in random order, single column, same page. I'm no mathematician, but it seems to me that fair chance is preserved. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
--Pete Posted February 15, 2011 Report Share Posted February 15, 2011 ... Sounds fair at first, but if someone has a number with 5 expired numbers just ahead (say 101, 102, 103, 104, 105 are expired, and he is 106) then he has 6 times the chance that active number 107 has. (Six numbers pay to 106, only one to 107). ... If the RNG only picked one number, then you're correct. But, I remember the characteristics of the RNG that John uses, it creates a random order for the full field of numbers. If there were only 10 numbers, the output might look like this: 4,6,8,3,5,1,9,10,2,7 The RNG doesn't pick only one number nor does it pick the first number and then list the others sequentially ... like this: 4,5,6,7,8,9,10,1,2,3. Thus, having expired numbers ahead of your number does not tilt the odds in your favor. Yes? Cheers, Tom Correct, all issued numbers (i.e. 1 to 800) appear in random order, single column, same page. I'm no mathematician, but it seems to me that fair chance is preserved. Well, I AM a mathematician (of sorts) and that does seem to work fairly. It isn't how I'd do it, but it is fair. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jeepster Posted February 15, 2011 Report Share Posted February 15, 2011 The physical analogy of John's RNG is a hat with all 800 numbers in it. John has been (shortened version) picking a number and either 1) announcing a winner if it's a valid number or 2) throwing the number back into the hat and redrawing until a valid number comes up first. What I'm proposing is (shortened version) that John discards the number if it's not valid, and then, redrawing until a valid number appears. In John's method the probability of a successful number coming up first is approximately 295/800 ... for most drawings he will run the generator two or three times. No wonder the drawings are a day late!!!! Cheers, Tom Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Barresi Posted February 15, 2011 Author Report Share Posted February 15, 2011 I remember, I got into that habit with the raffles so I could screen cap the results with a valid number on top. Single draw it is, hence forth. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guru4tru Posted February 16, 2011 Report Share Posted February 16, 2011 I remember, I got into that habit with the raffles so I could screen cap the results with a valid number on top. Single draw it is, hence forth. WELL, I'm glad we worked all that stuff out!! A "SKYDOG T-SHIRT" is going along with the "Sweet Emotion!!" (Like John doesn't know what he is doing!! heehee!!) Keep It Up! Duane Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hedgewarden Posted February 16, 2011 Report Share Posted February 16, 2011 OK, I misinterpreted the algorithm being described. I thought it was: if the RNG picked 105, and 105 was no longer active, then go to member 106 ... 107 ... 108 ... until you hit an active member. Yes, if the RNG delivers a set of randomized numbers that cover the available member numbers (active and inactive), then going down the RNG list (NOT the member list as I interpreted it) appears to be a fine way to find the lucky active member. IOW "Never mind" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guru4tru Posted February 16, 2011 Report Share Posted February 16, 2011 OK, I misinterpreted the algorithm being described. I thought it was: if the RNG picked 105, and 105 was no longer active, then go to member 106 ... 107 ... 108 ... until you hit an active member. Yes, if the RNG delivers a set of randomized numbers that cover the available member numbers (active and inactive), then going down the RNG list (NOT the member list as I interpreted it) appears to be a fine way to find the lucky active member. IOW "Never mind" Relax Howard...we already have the "SKYDOG T-SHIRT" going with the kite! No need to push things anymore!! heehee!! Just follow your handle...and go trim some hedges or slop some hogs!! hheehheehhee!! That funny!! Keep It Up! Duane Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Barresi Posted February 16, 2011 Author Report Share Posted February 16, 2011 Now that we have that sorted out... *DING DING* Let the trash talking resume. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grandpa Posted February 16, 2011 Report Share Posted February 16, 2011 No trash, in the words of Chef, just sweet love My Coyote is longing for some sweet emotion. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Barresi Posted February 16, 2011 Author Report Share Posted February 16, 2011 Did your Coyote arrive yet? If not, any day now! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grandpa Posted February 16, 2011 Report Share Posted February 16, 2011 Did your Coyote arrive yet? If not, any day now! Got here Monday! :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guru4tru Posted February 17, 2011 Report Share Posted February 17, 2011 No trash, in the words of Chef, just sweet love My Coyote is longing for some sweet emotion. Yeah!!! Well Gramps...if you win the "Sweet Emotion" too, then I'll know "RNG"...stands for..."R"ight "N"umber "G"randpa!! heehee!! Keep It Up! Duane Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Barresi Posted February 17, 2011 Author Report Share Posted February 17, 2011 Alas, Bill is out of the running for the Sweet Emotion, winners skip a drawing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grandpa Posted February 17, 2011 Report Share Posted February 17, 2011 Alas, Bill is out of the running for the Sweet Emotion, winners skip a drawing. John, you just took out the trash... talking Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baloo Posted February 17, 2011 Report Share Posted February 17, 2011 Hey Bill, you could take out a second subscription, hopefully that would drop you right back in with a chence, a Hat trick no less. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grandpa Posted February 18, 2011 Report Share Posted February 18, 2011 Alas, Bill is out of the running for the Sweet Emotion, winners skip a drawing. John, you just took out the trash... talking Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Barresi Posted February 20, 2011 Author Report Share Posted February 20, 2011 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ant man Posted February 20, 2011 Report Share Posted February 20, 2011 tried out one of the with jim cosca its a nice kite ..it nade a guy like me look like i knew what i was doing..if you made a mistake it fixed itself out of it..a good kite for anyone really Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Barresi Posted February 21, 2011 Author Report Share Posted February 21, 2011 You still remember how to fly dualies Ant? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
photomom Posted February 25, 2011 Report Share Posted February 25, 2011 March 1st is the first day of my retirement. That kite would make a sweet retirement gift. LOL kjm Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guru4tru Posted February 25, 2011 Report Share Posted February 25, 2011 March 1st is the first day of my retirement. That kite would make a sweet retirement gift. LOL kjm Hi "photomom", Congrats on your retirement!!! I'm into mine now a year and 3 months and I know that I would have gone crazy with all this time, if I didn't have my kites!! I'm going to hope that you get the "sweet emotion"! Yeah...that's right! I hope you get it! (heck...I've tried everything else and haven't won...I'll try reverse psychology!! heehee!!) Keep It Up! Duane Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guru4tru Posted February 28, 2011 Report Share Posted February 28, 2011 It twas the night before the drawing and all through the land; Not a kite was flying, they all were in hand. The kite bags were hung be the chimney with care, In hopes that JB soon would be there! And what to my wandering eyes did I strain; But JB on a string pulled by eight kites in a train! (OK…that’s the best I can do…someone else has to finish it!! heehee!!) Keep It Up! Duane Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Barresi Posted March 1, 2011 Author Report Share Posted March 1, 2011 Nice Duane. Maybe I'll just throw the kite into the middle of the forum and let everyone duke it out... That's still random, right? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guru4tru Posted March 1, 2011 Report Share Posted March 1, 2011 Nice Duane. Maybe I'll just throw the kite into the middle of the forum and let everyone duke it out... That's still random, right? HO...HO...HO..Christmas in March!! heehee!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jeepster Posted March 1, 2011 Report Share Posted March 1, 2011 John, Just bring in to Kite Party after the RNG finally gets around to my number ... it'll save shipping costs that way. Cheers, Tom Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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