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Sweet Emotion (3/1/11)


John Barresi

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... Sounds fair at first, but if someone has a number with 5 expired numbers just ahead (say 101, 102, 103, 104, 105 are expired, and he is 106) then he has 6 times the chance that active number 107 has. (Six numbers pay to 106, only one to 107). ...

If the RNG only picked one number, then you're correct.

But, I remember the characteristics of the RNG that John uses, it creates a random order for the full field of numbers. If there were only 10 numbers, the output might look like this: 4,6,8,3,5,1,9,10,2,7 The RNG doesn't pick only one number nor does it pick the first number and then list the others sequentially ... like this: 4,5,6,7,8,9,10,1,2,3. Thus, having expired numbers ahead of your number does not tilt the odds in your favor.

Yes?

Cheers,

Tom

Correct, all issued numbers (i.e. 1 to 800) appear in random order, single column, same page.

I'm no mathematician, but it seems to me that fair chance is preserved. :wacko:

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... Sounds fair at first, but if someone has a number with 5 expired numbers just ahead (say 101, 102, 103, 104, 105 are expired, and he is 106) then he has 6 times the chance that active number 107 has. (Six numbers pay to 106, only one to 107). ...

If the RNG only picked one number, then you're correct.

But, I remember the characteristics of the RNG that John uses, it creates a random order for the full field of numbers. If there were only 10 numbers, the output might look like this: 4,6,8,3,5,1,9,10,2,7 The RNG doesn't pick only one number nor does it pick the first number and then list the others sequentially ... like this: 4,5,6,7,8,9,10,1,2,3. Thus, having expired numbers ahead of your number does not tilt the odds in your favor.

Yes?

Cheers,

Tom

Correct, all issued numbers (i.e. 1 to 800) appear in random order, single column, same page.

I'm no mathematician, but it seems to me that fair chance is preserved. :wacko:

Well, I AM a mathematician (of sorts) and that does seem to work fairly. It isn't how I'd do it, but it is fair.

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The physical analogy of John's RNG is a hat with all 800 numbers in it. John has been (shortened version) picking a number and either 1) announcing a winner if it's a valid number or 2) throwing the number back into the hat and redrawing until a valid number comes up first. What I'm proposing is (shortened version) that John discards the number if it's not valid, and then, redrawing until a valid number appears.

In John's method the probability of a successful number coming up first is approximately 295/800 ... for most drawings he will run the generator two or three times. No wonder the drawings are a day late!!!!

Cheers,

Tom

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I remember, I got into that habit with the raffles so I could screen cap the results with a valid number on top.

Single draw it is, hence forth. :crazy:

WELL, I'm glad we worked all that stuff out!!

A "SKYDOG T-SHIRT" is going along with the "Sweet Emotion!!" :wacko:

(Like John doesn't know what he is doing!! heehee!!)

Keep It Up!

Duane

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OK, I misinterpreted the algorithm being described. I thought it was: if the RNG picked 105, and 105 was no longer active, then go to member 106 ... 107 ... 108 ... until you hit an active member.

Yes, if the RNG delivers a set of randomized numbers that cover the available member numbers (active and inactive), then going down the RNG list (NOT the member list as I interpreted it) appears to be a fine way to find the lucky active member. :wacko:

IOW "Never mind" :crazy:

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OK, I misinterpreted the algorithm being described. I thought it was: if the RNG picked 105, and 105 was no longer active, then go to member 106 ... 107 ... 108 ... until you hit an active member.

Yes, if the RNG delivers a set of randomized numbers that cover the available member numbers (active and inactive), then going down the RNG list (NOT the member list as I interpreted it) appears to be a fine way to find the lucky active member. :wacko:

IOW "Never mind" :crazy:

Relax Howard...we already have the "SKYDOG T-SHIRT" going with the kite! No need to push things anymore!! heehee!!

Just follow your handle...and go trim some hedges or slop some hogs!! hheehheehhee!! That funny!!

Keep It Up!

Duane

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No trash, in the words of Chef, just sweet love :wub:

My Coyote is longing for some sweet emotion. :)

Yeah!!! Well Gramps...if you win the "Sweet Emotion" too, then I'll know

"RNG"...stands for..."R"ight "N"umber "G"randpa!! heehee!!

Keep It Up!

Duane

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March 1st is the first day of my retirement. That kite would make a sweet retirement gift. LOL

kjm

Hi "photomom",

Congrats on your retirement!!! I'm into mine now a year and 3 months and I know that I would have gone crazy :) with all this time, if I didn't have my kites!!

I'm going to hope that you get the "sweet emotion"! Yeah...that's right! I hope you get it! (heck...I've tried everything else and haven't won...I'll try reverse psychology!! heehee!!)

Keep It Up!

Duane

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It twas the night before the drawing and all through the land;

Not a kite was flying, they all were in hand.

The kite bags were hung be the chimney with care,

In hopes that JB soon would be there!

And what to my wandering eyes did I strain;

But JB on a string pulled by eight kites in a train!

(OK…that’s the best I can do…someone else has to finish it!! heehee!!)

Keep It Up!

Duane

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